I don't believe the hype about AI replacing our jobs, much less humanity, in the next few years, what I do believe is that this type of narrative originates from tech CEOs in order to get more and more investments.
There are a few major issues with the current AI models in use, the main models being language-based models and image-based ones. These run into issues such as prompt injection (getting an AI to forget previous instructions in favor of a new one, inputted by the user (note that I said the user and not the developper - LLMs cannot distinguish between what devs teach it and what users teach it, since both are based in language)). LLMs are very vulnerable to this. Another major issue is that our current AI models can't extrapolate, only interpolate; they cannot come up with anything that doesn't already exist in the data sets they look at. And since these data sets are either language or image-based, it is easy for them to 'hallucinate' an answer to a question it does not have clear data on, because it cannot correlate it with any other form of data.
Current models have security issues (prompt injection) which cannot be solved fundamentally because they are rooted in the nature of the model - language being easy to manipulate. They cannot become smarter than the existing material (data) they look at.
To create real AGI, you would need models that are very different, possibly crossing different existing models and some non-yet-existant ones. Currently, the hype is creating a financial bubble, I think.
An anecdote is that I tried using AI (GPT and CoPilot) to help me design a small video game project. There was an issue with my GUI that the AI just could not figure out (neither could I, as I was new to the engine I was using and to game dev in general), and no matter how much info I sent it, it could not solve the issue. If I had gotten a human (who knew the game engine well) to look at it, I'm sure they could have pinpointed where the problem was in two seconds. Granted, I was using a free version of these tools. Nonetheless, I was not impressed at all. To get an AI to solve a specific type of problem, it would have to be specialized in solving that kind of problem. But then that is no longer an AGI, is it?
I think someday, there may be AI powerful enough to replace all jobs, and even humanity. I don't know. It's hard to say what the future will look like. I do not think current AI models are anywhere close to doing these things, though.